Ike heads northwest

I'd say dust off your personal hurricane response plan, but those plans haven't had anywhere near enough time to get dusty.  In fact, they've gotten a pretty good workout this year.

There's some grumbling and second-guessing about Gustav, FEMA, evacuations, etc.  That's to be expected, and there' s lots of time to debate it later.

But please, everyone...let's focus right now on the flying grizzly bear that's about to be on our doorstep.  His name is Ike. 

Now is not the time to second-guess a public response plan which successfully saved hundreds if not thousands of lives in our region during the onslaught of Hurricane Rita, and can do the same if Ike lands here.

It's tempting to think of hurricanes as pulls on a slot machine; that accumulated strikes in our region including a fairly recent one (2005) right up our airpipe mean we won't get another hit anytime soon, or that historical data says that a hurricane coming from this direction this time of year is unlikely to land in a particular place. 

But that's not how it works.  Tropical systems are a zero-sum game.  They have no "memory," no institutional or historical knowledge, no matter how many of them come our way.   Each one is an independent agent, acting according to a set of forces which are still not completely predictable.  (OK, that's not how individual slot machines work either, but the assumption by so many players that they do is what keeps casinos in business.)

Forecasters do a good job of telling us what the likely scenarios are at any given point in a storm's trajectory, but they still cannot tell us as a storm moves into or through the Gulf exactly where it will land, its exact intensity on final approach, or the size of its windfield.

Don't forget Hurricane Lily.  Just 50 or so miles due south of Lake Charles, she took a right turn and whacked Lafayette as a Cat 2.  So even if you see Ike head west toward Texas, don't let your guard down for a second; our OEP officials certainly won't.  Gulf storms are famous for those last-minute right turns. Just because we had a near miss on Gustav does not mean it's responsible for officials not to respond according to plan.  It certainly doesn't make it any more responsible for residents of our area to ignore called evacuations.

Whatever happens, I can promise you this:  KPLC will be with you every step of the way, as we always have been.  We're already into "Defcon 4" planning for Ike, though we hope the latter stages of our response plan won't be needed.  You can get full emergency information on KPLC, on kplctv.com, on 7 On Your Cell, and if/when Ike gets much closer, on KPLC WeatherPlus and on our network of partner radio stations (KZWA Vibe 105 FM, and on the cluster of great Gap Radio Group stations in SWLA.

Borrowing a phrase I used to close out tonight's Hot Button on the subject, it's wise to pray for the best (that includes everyone in the hurricane's path) but plan for the worst.

Me?  I'm hoping Ike loses interest and fizzles out in the Gulf.  But that's not likely to happen.  Mid-October can't come soon enough to suit me.

Comments

[M & M]

So many people in Calcasieu Parish evacuated for Gustav. They prepared for the worst and prayed for the best.
To have Calcasieu Parish "NOT" included in the disaster parish listing is a slap in the face! That slap is not how we show our southern hospitality.

Now, we have Ike.

People will "NOT" evacuate so quickly or as early. You can take that to the bank because the bank is where our wonderful Government is hitting us.....THANKS FEMA !!!!!! The Government officials know Southwest Louisiana is God's country. God takes care of his own.

This looks like a repeat performance of the 2005 hurricane year.
Southwest Louisiana gets the leftovers, if any!

[Sheryl]

I think Calcasieu parish did a great job with evacuating for Gustav. I never thought Calcasieu parish would qualify as a disaster area. I havent seen any trash, debris, or damage since I've been back in town. I know a lot of residents are struck hard financially by evacuating and I can relate. But Gustav did no where near the damage of Rita and I can understand why the government didnt declare us a disaster area. Lets save the disaster money for when we really need it, like when Ike tears into us...if it does. Lastly I hope the residents of Calcasieu parish are smart enough to realize that they have to take every storm that heads in our general direction seriously. Just think of all the complaining that would arise if the parish didnt have a mandatory evacuation, and then a major storm came along and devastated the area. I want to thank the government for working hard in this aspect to keep our community safe.

[Kathy]

Okay I admit that I am mad about Calcasieu Parish being omitted from the FEMA Gustov approved list for assistance. If you agree read on and take action please - call me the hockey...I mean bowling Mom trying to make a difference.

Our local and even State Government is asking for our help in order to try and add Calcasieu to the approved FEMA list. At this point for me it is a matter of principal.

I agree that we were lucky with Gustov and that we need to take every storm seriously as noted in other blogs but I fear that because we were the lone "excluded" place that people will not do such next time.

Please read on...please see the talking points...copy and paste if you agree or send your own message to FEMA on this subject. It is important! Each of us needs to send FEMA a message.

I am forwarding the link for FEMA to everyone and asking for you to spend a few minutes to send an email to them so that we can let them know how the citizens of our Parish feel about being omitted from the approved list. I know many of us are fortunate enough that this did not financially impede our ability to pay our bills however I do feel that this is not the case for many and am fearful that the next hurricane will elicit far less cooperation regarding evacuation than this one - Gustov - did.

We forward many fun emails - won't you help with this important effort? It won't bring "luck" but it will help to make a difference right here at home!

Here is the link: FEMA-Correspondence-Unit@dhs.gov

Below are some talking points for your email...you can copy and paste...you can delete...add your own opinion ... but if nothing else just send FEMA an email asking them to reconsider. Crop, chop, delete parts or add other information that you feel...just please send something...ASAP!

Talking points:

* We were mandated to evacuate - the evacuation process was very successful and citizen cooperation was high - everything ran smooth
* All Parishes in South Louisiana are included on the FEMA disaster approved list EXCEPT Calcasieu
* West Texas Counties were also included - much farther west than Calcasieu Parish
* West Texas Counties escaped devastation - like Calcasieu - yet are eligible for evacuation assistance
* All areas north, south, east and west of us are approved
* It costs the government far more to have to evacuate citizens then for citizens to evacuate themselves - it is estimated that a single evacuee is expensive while entire families can evacuate for far less than that cost with no liability being transferred to the Government entity which is the case for those evacuating through public means
* The government could not afford or handle if everyone used the "public" evacuation process over private evacuation - the media would then be all over reporting how inefficient FEMA and the Feds were at helping the citizens of our country (no offense intended on KPLC of course)
* Lives will be lost if people do not evacuate - Hurricanes can turn quickly and it takes time for people to get out of harms way. Just because this time (Gustov) harm wasn't centered here in Calcasieu Parish this time, is the government prepared to risk people's lives because they didn't support an earlier evacuation that was ordered?
* A second hurricane, IKE, has been threatening Southwest Louisiana just after we came back from Gustov. With no assistance on the horizon you would see a much different acceptance rate from the citizens of the Parish if evacuation was ordered again!? We apparently are okay with IKE but the next time will be different if we do not get approved. The Government could expect a similar situation as what happened in Katrina - complacency - because people will be reluctant to spend the time and money to evacuate when faced with the challenges of higher fuel costs and stretched budgets.
* Personally my business lost income because of this storm. I spent additional money making my home and family prepared for the possibility of the storm with extra supplies, plywood, gas, water and canned food items (tax revenue for the government) and time. I even experienced back strain and additional medical treatment. I know of another who needed surgeriy and was turned away because we were in evacuation mode and a short time later died of their medical condition. I know of another that had an accident while preparing to evacuate - right here in Calcasieu Parish! Those people are not suing for restitution - but at least FEMA could do the right thing and bring some balance to Calcasieu Parish by adding it to the list of approved FEMA areas for Gustov!
* As not one who usually jumps into lawsuits, I certainly hope that a lawyer doesn't have to file a class action lawsuit in order to make this happen - then we know the citizens again are the losers.

Please ask FEMA to treat our Parish - Calcasieu Parish - the same as everyone else - anywhere near us!

This is the right thing to do!

Respectfully submitted

[PH]

I am with you Sheryl. I don't agree that FEMA owes us anything. We had no damage to this area AT ALL! My parents lost almost everything for hurricane Lillie and again with Rita. Guess what? While others were collecting assistance for fallen limbs and knocked down trash cans, my parents had almost $50,000 worth of damages between the two storms and did not see a dime from FEMA, Red Cross,the state, etc. Only what the insurance company covered. The mandatory evacuation is for our own safety. As I too spent a substantial amount of money evacuating, Im glad that there were such provisions in place to make this an easy transition. It's for your own safety. And there are other alternatives if one can not afford to evacuate that cost nothing. It's not the governments job to reimburse you although the mandatory evacuation was put in place. Let them take care of the parishes that actually had damage.

[Tina]

I am with those who believe FEMA owes us nothing I was there for Rita and had major loss to my home and am still fighting to get my home taken care of. This area did not see any damage with Gustav and the money should be saved for those really in need. I believe that many people abuse the system and all the rest of us pay for it.

[Julie]

I know it is hard to accept but we have all chosen to live in a state where hurricanes are a possibility. Along with that comes the personal responsibility to prepare to evacuate if needed. No one controles the storms but the Almighty and I know we look to someone for help but in the end We chose to live here and should count our blessings for what we have, our safety. On the other hand, I also know that my family can't afford another stay in the hotels and loosing a week of pay being away at a shelter is not an option for our family. I have to be back to work as soon as possible to assess reopening and those I work with need to be able to work as well or no on e gets paid. Again it is no one's fault but the situation. One I am praying hard about as we just can't leave for this one, not this soon. Respectfully yours, Julie