7Stormteam Weather Blog

Omar and TD#16:

Two storms are continuing to spin today in the Caribbean as seen above.  Omar is a pretty well defined category one hurricane that has strengthened under more favorable conditions in the Caribbean over the past 12-24 hours.  Omar is finally moving northeastward after churning relatively stationary for the past few days.  Omar is forecast to strengthen as it passes east of Puerto Rico and moves into the Atlantic.  Omar is forecast to move rather rapidly, northeast into the mid-Atlantic in the next few days, guided by a deep trough currently moving into the Atlantic.  Omar will not affect weather in SWLA.  Below is the latest forecast track for Omar:

TD#16 is looking very weak and has moved over land and will dump rain into Honduras and Guatemala.  It is expect to spend the remainder of its life inland and is not anticipated to strengthen any further during this period.  TD#16 will not affect SWLA weather either.  Below is the Latest forecast track for TD#16:

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper

Secondary Spike in Tropical Activity Continues...

Good morning. It's been awhile since my last entry. Hope everyone is doing well, and our thoughts and prayers continue to be with those of you who are still recovering from Hurricane Ike.

I wanted to take just a few minutes to talk about the current tropical systems as we have entered into a period of secondary enhanced activity here in middle October. In this post I will also include a link to a report on Hurricane Ike from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles along with a few bullet points about Ike.

First, we have two active storms in the Atlantic basin at this time. The good news is that neither one of the storms will pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, and for all intents and purposes the season is pretty much over for Louisiana, now that we are getting cold fronts. So, with that said, here's what we have going on.

The most significant storm at this time is Hurricane Omar. Omar may affect the landmasses of the Caribbean Islands. This includes Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Omar continues to strengthen this morning. It developed from a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean over the weekend, and became Tropical Depression 15 on Monday. Rapid intensification occurred, and Omar was upgraded on Tuesday morning. Omar became a hurricane Tuesday night, and now has winds of 85 mph as it moves off to the NE.

As of 10a.m. Omar was located in the Northeastern Caribbean Sea. The eye of Hurricane Omar was centered at:

15.2 N

67.2 W

This position is 235 miles SW of St. Croix and 235 miles SSW of San Juan, PR.

Omar is moving off to the NE at 9 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed expected through Friday. On this track, Omar will be moving through the Northern Leeward Islands late tonight and early Thursday.

Omar has sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts. Omar is a category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Omar is forecast to continue strengthening and should become a category 2 hurricane later today or tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward only 15 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 115 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 29.00" or 982 mb.

Rainfall totals of 4-8" on average are expected over the Netherlands Antilles with maximum totals of up to 12" possible. 2-4" of rain with maximum amounts of 6" are expected across extreme Northwestern and North-Central Venezuela and the Northern Guajira Peninsula. Total rainfall amounts of 5-10" with maximum amouts of up to 20" are possible across Puerto Rico and the Northern Leeward Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

*A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the islands of Vieques and Culebra.

*A Hurricane Warning is in effect for St. Martin/Maarten , Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, The British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

*A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, and Montserrat.

*A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, and this could be changed to a hurricane warning later today.   

 

Now, here's the latest on Tropical Depression #16.

T.D. 16 is a threat to Central America. As of 10a.m. the broad center of the tropical depression was located at:

15.8 N

84.5 W

This position is about 75 miles East of Limon, Hondarus and about 270 miles East of Monkey River Town, Belize.

The motion of the depression is Westward at 5 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. This will result in the depression moving very near the Northern coast of Hondarus during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph with higher gusts, and some strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours. The depression could attain tropical storm status during this time, and if so its name would be Paloma.

Minimum central pressure is 29.68" or 1005 mb.

4-8" of rain is expected with isolated amounts of up to 15" possible over Northeastern Nicaragua, Northern Hondarus, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

*A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Belize and Hondarus.

*A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Eastern coast of Guatemala.

 

That concludes a look at what's currently going on in the tropics. Just a reminder that it is still hurricane season for another 6 weeks or so. The season officially ends November 30, but again it appears that the season is over with for Louisiana due to the fall weather patterns.

Now, here's a link to a comprehensive report on Hurricane Ike via the National Weather Service Lake Charles.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/ike/ikemain.php

A few bullet points from the report:

-Landfall occurred at 2:10 a.m. on September 13, 2008 at Galveston, TX.

-On September 11 at 10 a.m. a Recon plane reported that Ike's tropical storm wind swath was an amazing 450 miles wide while the hurricane force wind swath was 180 miles. At the same time, a hurricane warning was issued from Baffin Bay, TX to Morgan City, LA.

-Maximum wind speed and gust recorded at Lake Charles Regional Airport: 53 mph sustained, 77 mph (hurricane force) gust.

-Ike was more of a storm surge event across SW Louisiana whereas Rita was a double whammy of wind and surge.

-Ike produced some of the worst storm surge flooding in history across SW Louisiana. At it worst, the surge flooded about 1/3 of downtown Lake Charles. I should note that the worst of the surge came around sunrise to mid-morning on the 13th...several hours after Ike's actual landfall near Galveston.

-Storm surge resulted in the second highest crest level ever for the Calcasieu River at Salt Water Barrier, and the highest crest level in recorded history for the Sabine River at Orange.

-11' storm surge in downtown Lake Charles was higher than that of Hurricane Rita.

-Widespread flooding south of Lake Charles due to the storm surge, and water came to within about 1/2 mile of the airport.

-Over half of Calcasieu Parish lost power during the storm.

-A 12-15' surge occurred in downtown Cameron. This nearly matches that of Hurricane Rita.

-At least 3,000 Cameron Parish homes flooded, and many schools had water enter them.

-Most modular and mobile homes in lower Cameron Parish that were not elevated were destroyed.

Finally, the storm surge with Ike was equivalent to that of a high end category 3 or low end category 4 storm even though the winds were of a high end category 2 strength (110 mph) at landfall.

That's all for now. Have a great day.

-Drew McLachlan-

Omar a hurricane; TD 16 skirting along Honduras coastline

Omar is now a category one hurricane after gaining strength overnight. Winds are at 80 mph sustained and it is moving to the northeast. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After Omar passes these islands it will not be affect any other land. The storm will move out into the central Atlantic this weekend and gradually dissipate.

Tropical depression 16 is moving along the coastline of Honduras this morning with rain showers and winds up to 35 mph. This storm is moving west and will only affect central America. TD 16 could become a tropical storm over the next day if it stays far enough over water to gain intensity from the warm waters of the Caribbean. If not, it will remain a tropical depression.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Omar and TD#16:

Two storms are spinning in the Caribbean as seen above.  Omar currently is a strong tropical storm that has moved into an environment that is more favorable for strengthening.  Omar is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane within the next 12 hours and could strike Puerto Rico as a category two hurricane as early as Wednesday evening.  Omar is expected to be picked up by a deepening trough off to its north in the Atlantic.  Omar will not affect weather in SWLA.  Below is the latest forecast track for Omar:

TD#16 hasn’t strengthened over the day today.  The convection associated with it has been light, but there still are signs of circulation.  TD#16 is forecast to move nearly due westward into Honduras or Guatemala over the next few days as the trough that will bring cool, dry weather to us will help push the TD south. It is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm prior to landfall.  Its exact strength will depend on how much time it spends over water.  TD#16 will not affect SWLA weather either.  The next name for a storm is Paloma.  Below is the Latest forecast track for TD#16:

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper

Tropical Storm Omar and Tropical Depression 16

Even though the gulf has been quiet with no tropical weather in over a month, things are active elsewhere. The fifteenth named tropical storm has formed in the Caribbean. Omar is located in the eastern Caribbean Sea just south of Puerto Rico where tropical storm watches have been posted. After a slow start, Omar will move northeast and into the central Atlantic by late this week. This storm could become a hurricane but by the time it does it will have nothing to affect but the open ocean around it.

The other area of concern is now tropical depression #16 located in the western Caribbean. Parts of  Honduras and Nicaragua are under a tropical storm warning. The storm, which is likely to upgraded to a tropical storm will be on a west-northwest path toward the coast of Honduras. If the center of the storm stays offshore it will have an easier time strengthening and if it moves inland sooner it could stay a tropical depression.

Both of these storms will NOT affect the gulf coast though hurricane season still does not end until November 30. Cold fronts are our friend during this time of year. Not only do they bring in cooler weather but help to keep any tropical weather at bay. 

Tropical Depressions Nana & #15:

The tropics are pretty active at this time as you can see in the above NHC graphic.  The good news is that none of the systems are forecast to impact SWLA.  To the east, Nana is expected to dissipate over the next 24 hours in the Atlantic.  In the Caribbean to the east is Tropical Depression #15 which could become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 hours.  This system ifs forecast to remain stationary for the next few days before being picked up by a trough in the Atlantic, which will steer it to the northeast.  The red shaded area near Nicaragua is in question for development as well.  It is forecast to move north or northwest and potentially develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so.  This too is forecast to move westward into the coastline of Central America if it develops.  The next two names in line are Omar and Paloma.  A cold front moving through our region by the weekend will also aid in guiding storms to the southwest of us.  Below is the latest track on TD#15:

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper

Tropical Storm Nana - Not Expected to Last Long:

On Sunday afternoon, the fourteenth tropical cyclone of the season officially formed as Tropical Storm Nana.  This storm is not forecast to form into a hurricane and is actually expected to weaken into remnant low by Tuesday.  Nana is forecast to spin in the eastern Atlantic and not threaten the U.S. prior to dissipating.  Below is the forecast track:

We are also watching a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that had been straddling the Atlantic and Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles for a few days now.  Upper level winds will slowly become more favorable for development of this low pressure center to become a tropical cyclone over the next day or so.  We well keep a close watch on this area over the next few days to track any development, and we’ll keep you up to speed on the very latest.  Below is the latest image from the NHC, with the focus on the red shaded area south of Puerto Rico and west of the Antilles:

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper

Tropical Storm Marco - Not a Threat to SWLA

Early Monday morning, Tropical Depression #13 formed in the Bay of Campeche between the western coast of the Yucatan and the eastern coast of mainland Mexico.  TD#13 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Marco as of the 4pm advisory with winds of 65mph.  Marco will continue on a westerly track as it moves into mainland Mexico sometime Tuesday afternoon, possibly as a weak hurricane.  Due to its short travel time and nearly due westward motion, Marco will not be making an appearance in SWLA.  Other than that, the tropics remain relatively quiet!  Below is the latest forecast track for Marco:

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper