Memorial Day Weekend Guest; The Upper Level Low:

Well “weather” you like it or not, we’ll have a guest stopping by Louisiana for the weekend, and its left quite an impression on our friends in Florida.  Yes, it’s that pesky upper-level low we have been blabbering about all week long.  This system is providing the upper level support for rain and thunderstorms on its periphery, with best chances to the eastern side of the storm.  We also have need discussing that this upper level low is not “tropical” in nature, but since we only have a short amount of time to discuss that on the air, I figured it would be a good idea to try to explain in further detail what we mean by not “tropical” here on the weather blog.

There a few different ways for storm systems to form in our region.  First off, most storm systems start with two blobs of air known as air masses that begin to interact with one another.  Typically, a warmer & more humid air mass moves north while a colder & drier air mass moves south.  This temperature difference usually fires off a low pressure system with an associated cold front which is the leading edge of the advancing cold air and a warm front which is the leading edge of the advancing cold air.  This is commonly known as an extratropical cyclone.  Since this battle typically takes place across the middle to high latitude regions of the earth’s hemispheres, they give it the prefix “extra”, roughly meaning “outside” the tropics region.  These systems are usually guided and helped to strengthen by energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Typically a trough or dip in the jet will help the low pressure at the surface.  From time to time, the jet stream pinches off a lobe of energy and spin.  This is known as an upper level low.  This upper level feature has a cold core and can sit and spin for days, meandering ever so slightly in any direction.  This destabilizes the air beneath it and allows for cooler, more cloudy and stormy days.  This upper level low is exactly what has formed over the Gulf of Mexico.  Notice below three things about the set-up of the upper level low:

1.  The heaviest rain and windiest conditions typically form away from the center of the low.
2. The surface low is tilted and offset from the upper level low.
3. The atmosphere in the upper level is cold and the winds are spinning in the same direction as at the surface: counterclockwise.

Since we’re dealing with a temperature driven system, we won’t be dealing with the development of a hurricane from it as we move through the weekend.  Hurricanes require a much different set-up in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Although an upper level low would not aid in the maintenance of a tropical system, it can initiate a tropical storm system and quickly move away.  The conditions at the surface and the nature of this system are not favorable for our current set-up.

A tropical system forms in an area of relative minimal temperature changes; thus, it’s known as a tropical cyclone.  (Since it occurs in the tropical latitudes, we drop the “extra” prefix).  The ingredients needed are a pre-existing disturbance (such as a moving or dissipating upper low), very warm ocean water through a depth of roughly 100 feet, and very light winds aloft with some dryer air aloft.  The differences in the structure are as follows:

1. The heaviest rains and windiest conditions are right around the center of the storm.
2. The surface low is stacked directly under an upper level high pressure
3. The atmosphere in the upper level is warmer, relatively speaking.  Winds are spinning outward in a clockwise direction after exiting the hurricane at the top, with light winds otherwise aloft.

 

So the primary message here is the structure of this upper-level low will keep scattered rain and thunderstorms in the forecast for the weekend.  There is no threat for any tropical development, because on many levels, both literally and figuratively, we don’t have the structure in place at this time in our atmosphere.  Enjoy your holiday weekend indoors and outdoors, and stay tuned to KPLC for the latest weather information.

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper

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