Tropical Update

Sunday, August 16, 2009 at 10AM:

TD#4 (28.7N 84.6W 35mph winds moving NW 14mph)
Tropical Depression #4 is showing signs of strengthening as of the 10AM update.  Aircraft reconnaissance missions are set to pass through this depression shortly to gather more information and determine if it has reached tropical storm status.  This storm’s rain bands have already begun to impact the coastline of the Florida panhandle.  This storm is not forecast to impact SWLA.  It is forecast make landfall later tonight along the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm.  If it reaches tropical storm status, TD#4 will be named Claudette.  The primary impacts of this system will be heavy rain upon landfall for Florida and Alabama.  Waves and surge impacts look minimal.  Strongest wind damage potential will be confined to about 20-50 miles the right side of the center of circulation or eye upon landfall.  Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Florida panhandle from the Alabama border to the Suwannee River in Florida.

ANA (14.8N 55.8W 35mph winds moving W 23mph)
Tropical storm Ana continues to pick up speed as she moves generally westward.  Ana has been having a great deal of trouble holding together over the past several hours.  Inhibiting factors for Ana include her fast westward speed which can’t allow for organization, wind shear which is helping to offset convective formation as well as destroying what has formed, and some dry air being ingested.  Ana is forecast to race westward, struggling to maintain tropical storm status.  It will move over the Caribbean island Monday into Tuesday and is forecast to be ripped apart by the mountainous terrain.  If her remnants make it past this point, she may be in the Gulf as a depression by late Thursday.  This scenario, however, is best case for Ana, and is not looking too favorable.  We’ll continue to track Ana.  Here biggest impact for the Caribbean islands will be heavy rainfall.

BILL (12.1N 38.4W 60mph winds moving WNW 16mph)
Tropical storm Bill is the clear leader in strength at this time.  Bill has vey little to inhibit his development which is why he is forecast to be a hurricane overnight tonight, and potentially a major hurricane by early Wednesday morning.  Bill is still about 4,000 miles away from SWLA, and the outlook for an impact is beginning to look increasingly better by the hour.  Many of the forecast models are calling for a breakdown in the Bermuda high as well as a trough pushing across the US late week, which essentially could push Bill out to see and avoid any landfalls.  It’s again still too early to write this one off.  Bill requires close monitoring over the next several days.

Be sure to check out the 7Stormteam Hurricane Center and the 7Stortmteam Hurricane Tracker.  They’re updated automatically and always have the latest information available right at your fingertips.

-Meteorologist Jeff Jumper

Comments

[tim]

thanks for keeping us updated. ya'll rock!!