7Stormteam Weather Blog

Tropical Update July 31st, 2011

Taking a look at the tropics an organized collection of low pressure including rain showers and thunderstorms continues to move west-northwestward at 15 MPH. Conditions remain favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form and it is expected that the system will form during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will once again investigate this system Monday morning. 

Tropical Update July 30th

We are watching 2 areas for tropical development. 

The first is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms with a westward moving tropical wave heading toward Central America and Yucatan tonight. This system is not expected to develop as it interacts with the land. 

The second system is the one circled in yellow. This system of thunderstorms and low pressure is centered about 750 miles East of the Lesser Antilles and continues to organize. A tropical depression could form later tonight or sunday. The systems movement is West-Northwest at 15 to 20 MPH and has a very high chance of tropical development. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon. 

7-29-2011 Tropical Update

 
Tropical Storm quickly weakened across Southern Texas before making landfall north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi after 10 PM Friday night. 

What is left of Don will die over northern Mexico in the next 24 hours.

 

 
Elsewhere in the tropics a strong tropical wave seems to be showing signs of organizing over the Central Atlantic Ocean.  Several of the computer models show this system currently called “Invest 91L” becoming a tropical system over the next few days; in fact several show it reaching hurricane status in a few days.

  All interests in the Lesser and Greater Antilles need to keep a close eye on “Invest 91L” because it could become a dangerous threat in a few days.  As far as the United States is concerned we have a long time to watch it and see what happens with this tropical wave.  Any impact at all on the US is at least 7 days away and possibly even longer than that.  If the system takes the northerly track then it would likely not be a threat to make it to the Gulf of Mexico at all.  Bottom line enjoy the weekend and come back and check with us next week on the status of this system and we will have a better idea by then.  Go to our Hurricane Center page for full details including a new Tropical weather discussion video that talks about his very system:

Don's Fate

Tropical Storm Don continues to hang on despite a lot of factors that are working against it's further development.. He is encountering quite a bit of wind shear which will prevent hardly any further intensification before making landfall late tonight along the southern Texas coast.  No impacts will be felt from Don here in southwest Louisiana.. Radar continues to show scattered showers across the area today and that will help keep aftenoon high temperatures down in most locations.  Wade will have a complete tropical update coming up later this afternoon on Live at 5, 6, and 10!

7-28-2011 Evening Tropical Update

 
Tropical Storm Don remains the closest tropical system to land and he strengthened a little bit late Thursday evening.  Winds are no sustained at 50 mph with higher gusts; and some strengthening is possible before landfall early Saturday morning in southern Texas.  The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for that landfall closer to Brownsville than Corpus Christi like we were previously thinking. 

This means little change for us; I still expect scattered to numerous showers across the area here in SW LA.  It may mean the very slim chance for coastal flooding in Cameron Parish gets even slimmer!  For a video discussion about Don click here: http://www.kplctv.com/category/5875/7stormteam-hurricane-center

 

Elsewhere in the tropics we are watching a tropical wave located near Hispaniola which does not seem to be organizing at this time. 

However another tropical wave located halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is looking better organized and some of the computer models show the possibility of some development of this system over the next few days.  It is still a few days from making to the Lesser Antilles so we have plenty of time to watch it and see what happens.  This is a sign that we are about to enter the heart of hurricane season; August and September are the two most active months for tropical development. 

 

Stay tuned to KPLC-TV, www.kplctv.com/weather, as well as our Facebook pages; mine is Wade Hampton KPLC, for further updates.

Wednesday Morning Tropical Update - 7-27-11

This morning we are watching the tropics for likely development near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  Currently a tropical wave is showing signs that there could be a center of circulation trying to form.  A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly out and investigate this area later today.  This will give us all a better idea just how organized it has become without having to rely solely on satellite imagery.  A strong high pressure ridge over the central US will continue to direct this potential storm in a WNW direction.  This will keep it over the central and western Gulf.   There is definitely no reason to panic here in SWLA at this time.  All of the computer models at this time are keeping the path along the Texas coastline and we’ll have a better idea on what to expect once the hurricane hunters have a chance to investigate the area later today.

Here is a copy of the 7:00AM Central update from the National Hurricane Center:

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE

YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR

DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT

50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS IN THE

NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN

GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT

MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH

CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS

SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Here is a look at the spaghetti plot of where all of the current computer models are forecasting it to track.

 

7-26-2011 Tropical Update...

Will Invest 90L become a tropical depression or tropical storm?  The radar picture does not show a well defined low level circulation at least not at this time; as of right now that answer remains no, but it is possible in time.  
Click here for a link to the Cuban Radar: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

 It is harder to tell from the still image of the radar but there is a large area of rotation.  The computer models remain split on this one with some of the large global computer models showing little developing with this system.  The NAM, or North American Model, being the most aggressive; it shows development as it moves west-northwestward toward the Texas coastline.  The individual track models are beginning to show some signs that they believe some development may occur.

It is important to remember you cannot focus on any one particular computer each time; nor can you put more faith in a particular model because “it has performed well in the past”. I do not put much faith in any of the models in this situation; until it actually develops into a tropical depression or storm the models are just “guessing” on what will happen with an imaginary storm.  So while some of the models show tracks closer to Louisiana we do not, repeat DO NOT, need to worry at this time.  Stay tuned to KPLC for further updates…  Again Invest 90L is not even a tropical system at this time; so there is nothing to worry about.  But it is a great reminder that we are in hurricane season and you should already have a plan in place should something threaten.

 

 

Elsewhere in the tropics there is a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles which has seen thunderstorm activity increasing over the last few hours.  But as of right now the computer models do not show much developing with this tropical wave.  The farther out in the Atlantic Ocean another tropical wave is located near the Cape Verde Islands.  The long range GFS computer hints at the possibility of some development from this; but it is a long way from land so we can watch this for quite a while! 

 

While not tropical in nature though I would share this picture sent in by Chris Spicer from Hackberry of a lightning strike today.  It is really cool to see the lightning bolt; and hard to capture on camera mind you!

Lightning Facts and Safety Tips

Southwest Louisiana gets its fair share of summertime thunderstorms, most of which produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.  It’s important to note that lightning injures hundreds of people each year.  It also kills dozens each year in US alone.  Looking back at some of the lightning death statistics for Louisiana, people have died over the past several years by being struck by lightning in their boat, yard, and even on a softball field as was the case in Baton Rouge in 2006.  Lake Charles even had a lightning fatality in 2009 when a man was struck by lightning while in a boat.  Louisiana alone averages close to 1 million cloud-to-ground lightning strikes each year.   A bolt of lightning is close to 5 times hotter than the surface of the sun, which makes your chances of survival virtually nil if struck.  Any person who lives to tell about being “struck by lightning” was probably not directly hit but rather nearly hit.  Even if you are not killed by being struck, lifetime effects will likely be felt.  Symptoms such as insomnia, memory loss, and other chronic illnesses can result from lightning related injuries.    The most important thing to remember with regard to lightning safety is that if you are close enough to hear thunder, then you are also close enough to be struck by lightning.   If you are outside and hear thunder, avoid water, high open spaces, and metal objects.  Do not seek shelter near trees.  You are safer in your car if a substantial structure cannot be found.  If you are indoors, avoid landline telephones, headsets, and any electronic device that plugged into an electric outlet.

7-25-2011 Tropical update...

We continue to watch the tropics but so far nothing shows signs of developing in an organized tropical system over the day or two.  The wide view of the entire Atlantic Basin shows a few tropical waves which I have highlighted on the map. 

The first one is located near Cuba and was classified as “invest 90L” by the National Hurricane Center on Friday.  But it had become so disorganized they declassified it; but it seems to be trying to reorganize so it is back as “invest 90L”.  The environmental conditions still do not look that good for quick development of this system; but we will continue to watch it. 
So what is an invest system?  Basically it is weather system that the National Hurricane Center wants to collect special weather data on from Satellites and to run specific computer models on.  The various track models begin forecasting tracks and intensities on an invest system; with no invest active these models do not compute the specialized data.  Being classified an invest system is not a sign of future development not does it mean a non-invest system cannot become a tropical system.  Invest systems have numbers 90-99 and the list gets recycled when we reach 99.  The “L” following the number means it is in the Atlantic Basin; and “E”, “C”,”W” are used for the Eastern, Central, and Western Pacific Basins respectively. 

 

Elsewhere in the tropics the is a tropical wave halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles; but this system does not show signs of development at this time.  Speaking of Africa another tropical wave is just about to come off the coast of Africa.  If a hurricane forms from a tropical wave that came from Africa we call it a “Cape Verde Storm” that because of the Cape Verde Islands being right next to Africa.  We are now entering the time of the year that tropical system have origins off the coast of Africa; and this part of the season is most active in August and September.  Which corresponds to the most active time of hurricane season.   

Tropical Update July 24th, 2011

The tropical wave in the Central Caribbean is not showing signs of development. It is creating rain showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and the Southeastern Bahamas. This system is moving to the west at 20 mph. This system will continue on to the Central Bahamas and Cuba during the next 48 hours.

 

Elsewhere in the Pacific, the post-tropical depression Dora continues to lose strength and is nothing more than scattered showers and thunderstorms at this time.