7Stormteam Weather Blog

Weather Versus Climate

From time to time I receive questions from viewers asking me to tell them what is going to happen with our weather months in advance.  To some people, there is a misconception that us meteorologists put together forecasts months in advance while only giving a 7-Day Forecast on the air.  This isn’t true because as meteorologists we predict the weather, not the climate.  You may be asking, what’s the difference?   There’s actually quite a bit of difference in the two and I’ll take some time now here on the blog to explain the best I can.

Meteorology is a term that is defined as someone who studies atmospheric processes and weather phenomena.    There’s that word “weather” again.  Now let’s define “weather.”  Weather as defined by the dictionary is, the state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to variables such as temperature, moisture, wind velocity, and barometric pressure.  Another way I’ve heard weather defined is the hour  to hour, day to day variation of atmospheric conditions such as cloud cover, fog, humidity, precipitation, sunshine, temperature, visibility, and wind direction and speed. 

Now let’s define climate.  Climate can be defined as the “general” weather-pattern of over a significantly large area of earth's surface whose average conditions (such as humidity, precipitation, temperature, wind velocity) or near-term course may be predicted to a reasonable degree of accuracy. It is estimated from weather records covering a period of 30 to 35 years.  Simply put, climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area.  Climatologists focus their study on such things as drought forecasts, and large-scale patterns such as La Nina and El Nino that evolve over time and have effects that are felt over longer periods of time such as entire seasons.  Since climatologists specializes their studies on climate, they would not spend time making short-term forecasts for specific locations such as Lake Charles, but would otherwise look at the larger picture such as our drought problem.  Climatologists keep thorough records of such conditions as daily high and low temperatures, daily precipitation amounts and determine what type of weather conditions are considered “normal” for a given area.  For instance, today our normal high in Lake Charles is 86 degrees.  How do we know what is normal?  It’s all because a climatologist kept track of temperatures everyday for 30 years and calculated the average temperature of what it “typically” feels like every day of a year for a particular location.  A climatologist is someone who collects data, investigates the indicators related to climate, and makes predictions about climate patterns. Using computer models, they can show how it is believed that the earth's climate has changed over time. They use tree rings, lake sediments, and glacial ice cores and other sources of information to theoretically determine what the earth's climate may have been like.

Hopefully this brief explanation helps you understand some of the differences of a meteorologist and a climatologist with regards to questions you have about weather and climate.

NASA's UARS Re-enters Earth's Atmosphere

NASA's UARS Re-enters Earth's Atmosphere

 

NASA’s decommissioned Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) fell back to Earth between 11:23 p.m. EDT Friday, Sept. 23 and 1:09 a.m. Sept. 24, 20 years and nine days after its launch on a 14-year mission that produced some of the first long-term records of chemicals in the atmosphere.

 

The precise re-entry time and location of debris impacts have not been determined. During the re-entry period, the satellite passed from the east coast of Africa over the Indian Ocean, then the Pacific Ocean, then across northern Canada, then across the northern Atlantic Ocean, to a point over West Africa. The vast majority of the orbital transit was over water, with some flight over northern Canada and West Africa.

 

Six years after the end of its productive scientific life, UARS broke into pieces during re-entry, and most of it up burned in the atmosphere. Data indicates the satellite likely broke apart and landed in the Pacific Ocean far off the U.S. coast. Twenty-six satellite components, weighing a total of about 1,200 pounds, could have survived the fiery re-entry and reach the surface of Earth. However, NASA is not aware of any reports of injury or property damage.

 

The Operations Center for JFCC-Space, the Joint Functional Component Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which works around the clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in Earth orbit, tracked the movements of UARS through the satellite’s final orbits and provided confirmation of re-entry.

 

“We extend our appreciation to the Joint Space Operations Center for monitoring UARS not only this past week but also throughout its entire 20 years on orbit,” said Nick Johnson, NASA’s chief scientist for orbital debris, at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston. “This was not an easy re-entry to predict because of the natural forces acting on the satellite as its orbit decayed. Space-faring nations around the world also were monitoring the satellite’s descent in the last two hours and all the predictions were well within the range estimated by JSpOC.”

 

UARS was launched Sept. 12, 1991, aboard space shuttle mission STS-48 and deployed on Sept. 15, 1991. It was the first multi-instrumented satellite to observe numerous chemical components of the atmosphere for better understanding of photochemistry. UARS data marked the beginning of many long-term records for key chemicals in the atmosphere. The satellite also provided key data on the amount of light that comes from the sun at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths. UARS ceased its scientific life in 2005.

 

Because of the satellite's orbit, any surviving components of UARS should have landed within a zone between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude. It is impossible to pinpoint just where in that zone the debris landed, but NASA estimates the debris footprint to be about 500 miles long.

 

Additional resources:

 

› NASA News Release, Sept. 24, 2011

› UARS Final Groundtrack (473 KB PDF)

› Re-Entry and Risk Assessment (498 KB PDF)

› Frequently Asked Questions: Orbital Debris

 

If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance.

9-21-2011 Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to churn over the Central Atlantic Ocean about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Ophelia is expected to turn north well east of the United States much like Katia did and some of the other storms this year.  So as of right now I see no threat at all to Southwest Louisiana from Ophelia.  For a detailed look at Ophelia checkout my video discussion on the hurricane page where you will also find our interactive tracker: http://www.kplctv.com/category/5875/7stormteam-hurricane-center

Tuesday 9-20-11 Tropical Update - "Invest 98L"

 

Looking at the tropics on this Tuesday, our eyes are turned toward the central Atlantic Ocean where a large low pressure system is evident about 1400 miles east of the windward islands.  This area has been persistent in showing signs of organization and environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for a tropical depression to form later today or Wednesday.  The hurricane center is giving this area a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 5 to 10 MPH.

 
 

We will be monitoring this low pressure area closely, as it has been given the name “Invest 98L” and specialized computer models are now forecasting a projected path.  The spaghetti plots do indicate a continued westward movement over the next several days.  Looking longer range, a trough moving off the US should eventually pick the system up and move it more northward.  At this time, any threat to SWLA is minimal but we will continue to monitor the situation and have updates each day here and on kplctv.com’s Hurricane Center page with daily video updates.

Origin of Dinosaur-Killing Asteroid Remains a Mystery...

Here is a neat article from NASA about the asteroid that may have killed the dinosaurs. Go here for the article or read it below: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/WISE/news/wise20110919.html

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PASADENA, Calif. -- Observations from NASA's Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission indicate the family of asteroids some believed was responsible for the demise of the dinosaurs is not likely the culprit, keeping open the case on one of Earth's greatest mysteries.

While scientists are confident a large asteroid crashed into Earth approximately 65 million years ago, leading to the extinction of dinosaurs and some other life forms on our planet, they do not know exactly where the asteroid came from or how it made its way to Earth. A 2007 study using visible-light data from ground-based telescopes first suggested the remnant of a huge asteroid, known as Baptistina, as a possible suspect.

According to that theory, Baptistina crashed into another asteroid in the main belt between Mars and Jupiter about 160 million years ago. The collision sent shattered pieces as big as mountains flying. One of those pieces was believed to have impacted Earth, causing the dinosaurs' extinction.

Since this scenario was first proposed, evidence developed that the so-called Baptistina family of asteroids was not the responsible party. With the new infrared observations from WISE, astronomers say Baptistina may finally be ruled out.

"As a result of the WISE science team's investigation, the demise of the dinosaurs remains in the cold case files," said Lindley Johnson, program executive for the Near Earth Object (NEO) Observation Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. "The original calculations with visible light estimated the size and reflectivity of the Baptistina family members, leading to estimates of their age, but we now know those estimates were off. With infrared light, WISE was able to get a more accurate estimate, which throws the timing of the Baptistina theory into question."

WISE surveyed the entire celestial sky twice in infrared light from January 2010 to February 2011. The asteroid-hunting portion of the mission, called NEOWISE, used the data to catalogue more than 157,000 asteroids in the main belt and discovered more than 33,000 new ones.

Visible light reflects off an asteroid. Without knowing how reflective the surface of the asteroid is, it's hard to accurately establish size. Infrared observations allow a more accurate size estimate. They detect infrared light coming from the asteroid itself, which is related to the body's temperature and size. Once the size is known, the object's reflectivity can be re-calculated by combining infrared with visible-light data.

The NEOWISE team measured the reflectivity and the size of about 120,000 asteroids in the main belt, including 1,056 members of the Baptistina family. The scientists calculated the original parent Baptistina asteroid actually broke up closer to 80 million years ago, half as long as originally proposed.

This calculation was possible because the size and reflectivity of the asteroid family members indicate how much time would have been required to reach their current locations -- larger asteroids would not disperse in their orbits as fast as smaller ones. The results revealed a chunk of the original Baptistina asteroid needed to hit Earth in less time than previously believed, in just about 15 million years, to cause the extinction of the dinosaurs.

"This doesn't give the remnants from the collision very much time to move into a resonance spot, and get flung down to Earth 65 million years ago," said Amy Mainzer, a co-author of a new study appearing in the Astrophysical Journal and the principal investigator of NEOWISE at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena. Calif. "This process is thought to normally take many tens of millions of years." Resonances are areas in the main belt where gravity nudges from Jupiter and Saturn can act like a pinball machine to fling asteroids out of the main belt and into the region near Earth.

The asteroid family that produced the dinosaur-killing asteroid remains at large. Evidence that a 10-kilometer (about 6.2-mile) asteroid impacted Earth 65 million years ago includes a huge, crater-shaped structure in the Gulf of Mexico and rare minerals in the fossil record, which are common in meteorites but seldom found in Earth's crust. In addition to the Baptistina results, the NEOWISE study shows various main belt asteroid families have similar reflective properties. The team hopes to use NEOWISE data to disentangle families that overlap and trace their histories.

"We are working on creating an asteroid family tree of sorts," said Joseph Masiero, the lead author of the study. "We are starting to refine our picture of how the asteroids in the main belt smashed together and mixed up."

JPL manages and operated WISE for NASA's Science Mission Directorate. The spacecraft was put into hibernation mode after it scanned the entire sky twice, completing its main objectives. The principal investigator, astronomer Edward Wright, is at UCLA. The mission was selected competitively under NASA's Explorers Program managed by the agency's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The science instrument was built by the Space Dynamics Laboratory in Logan. The spacecraft was built by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. in Boulder, Colo. Science operations and data processing take place at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. Caltech manages JPL for NASA.

Mosquito Mania

 
 
Recent rainfall from Tropical Storm Lee has brought the mosquitoes out in full force across SWLA especially in Calcasieu and Cameron parishes.   Mosquito control has been spraying the area with planes and using trucks to help control this nearly out-of-control problem we’re having.   Mosquito control officials in Calcasieu parish say that even though there’s an increase in the mosquito population, West Nile Virus is still not an issue for Calcasieu parish.  Everyone should still wear repellant and light colored clothing.  Another mosquito outbreak can be expected toward the end of the season.

Below is the list of weird mosquito prevention tips I found online courtesy of diylife.com. 

Weird Mosquito Tip #1: Drink Lots of Beer
Rumor. The rationale behind this gem isn't to have a good time, but that the alcohol and yeast are not appealing to a mosquito. Actually, the opposite is true. A mosquito actually prefers the blood of a beer-drinker over anyone else. You can try to trick them by leaving out open cans of beer around your yard, but it's more likely that Uncle Kenny will just drink the buggy brews instead.

Weird Mosquito Tip #2: Fire Up a Bubble Machine
Real. Though I suspect that this tip was actually submitted by a 5-year-old who desperately wants to improve their bubble output tenfold, mosquitos have been found to be repelled by soap solutions. So it's less about bubbles and more about the suds.

 

Weird Mosquito Tip #3: Mix Up Some 'Dew
Real-ish. Someone suggested mixing Mountain Dew and dish soap, then leaving the solution out in cups around the yard. Again, the mosquitoes were probably repelled by the soap rather than the soda. So save it for the refreshment stand and swap in water instead.

Weird Mosquito Tip #4: Wear Only White
Rumor. The thinking is that bold and dark colors absorb heat, which raises your body temperature, turning you into a buffet for bugs. But if it's hot out, you're going to have a higher body temperate no matter what you wear.

Weird Mosquito Tip #5: Rub Chives On Your Pulse Points
Real, but gross. Mosquitos hate the scent of chives, but so does everyone else around you.

Weird Mosquito Tip #6: Eat Plenty of Garlic
Real, but also gross. Points to the reader who painted a terrible picture in my head by writing, "Eat garlic until it oozes out your pores." Lovely. But if you happen to be eating a garlic-leaden meal, great news, mosquitos hate you.

Weird Mosquito Tip #7: Vacuum Them Up
Real. Of course, if you have the reflexes and the eyesight to be able to vacuum a mosquito mid-air, then I suggest you try out for the next "Karate Kid" movie.

Weird Mosquito Tip #8: Try This App
Real, but with reservations. There's a few iPhone apps on the market designed to emit a noise that repels mosquitoes. Unfortunately, it doesn't work on all varieties. And, it drives cats and dogs nuts.

Weird Mosquito Tip #9: Rub Yourself With Fabric Softener Sheets
Real. It goes back to tips #2 and #3, mosquitoes just don't like the taste or scent of soap. But use caution, since this idea just sounds irritating to the skin.

Weird Mosquito Tip #10: Spritz with Mouthwash
Rumor. A popular email forward from a few years back states that if you spritz yourself with a 10 to 1 mix of water to Listerine, you'll repel mosquitoes. While the menthol and eucalyptus doesn't appeal to the critters, the dilution won't be enough to make much of a difference. (And directly applying Listerine to skin will just dry you out.)

Tracking Tropical Storm Maria

Tropical Storm Maria continues to meander slowly this morning near the southern Bahamas.  This movement toward the NW should keep the direct effects of the storm away from the island chain.  A movement to the north is expected and Maria will be near the island of Bermuda by Thursday.  Environmental conditions do not favor much of any intensification of the storm over the next several days.  Thursday morning, winds were only 50 MPH and movement was towards the NNW at 5 MPH with coordinates of 21.9 N 67.9 W.  No impacts along the US coast will be felt from Tropical Storm Maria. 

 

Elsewhere in the tropics, no development is expected over the next 48 hours.  The Gulf of Mexico remains very quiet today.  A tropical wave is moving off the coast of Africa this morning and may bear watching, but otherwise there isn’t a lot going on at the present time.   For the latest on all the tropical systems be sure to head over to our hurricane section of KPLCTV.com by clicking the following link: http://www.kplctv.com/category/5875/7stormteam-hurricane-center

9-12-2011 Tropical Update

With no tropical systems threatening Southwest Louisiana at this time go checkout my tropical weather discussion video for the latest on Tropical Storm Maria or use our interactive tracker for the latest computer models and NHC forecast on Maria.  Here is the link to the tracker and video: http://www.kplctv.com/category/5875/7stormteam-hurricane-center

Glad to be reporting no tropical threats here by the way!!! Maybe it will stay that way the rest of the season...

Sunday Morning Tropical and Local Weather Blog

The latest information on TS Nate has the system over the Bay of Campeche moving westward to the Mexico coast Sunday Morning. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before it makes landfall. During the last several days there were a few models that brought the system to the north. Now there are no models bringing this system northward and it is not a threat to SWLA at all. 

Temperatures have been in a warming series reaching the upper 80s. Sunday we will return to lows ranging from 70 at the coast to 60s around I-10 to upper 50s in the northern parishes. Record Lows were reached Saturday morning in Beaumont and New Iberia. 

Dry weather is the current pattern and rain is not forecast during the next several days. Morning lows will be in the 60s until a Wednesday return to the 70s. Highs will return to low 90s on Sunday and remain there this week. 

Winds will be slightly variable between south and southwest but consistent in that pattern all week. 

The next chance for rain in the forecast will be next weekend as a cold front is currently forecast to move through. Have a great weekend…

- Kristian Claus

9-7-2011 Tropical Update

Tropical Strom Nate formed Wednesday afternoon in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico with winds of 45 mph.  It is weird to see a tropical system so relatively close but yet no impacts are expected here in Southwest Louisiana.  Nate is likely to drift around the Bay of Campeche for the next 24 -48 hours and then slowly move north.  This north movement is going to make it more uncomfortable here in SWLA because that means it will be heading our direction.  But the Bermuda High is likely going to be our good friend and steer Nate to the west toward Mexico by early next week. 

 

The Bermuda High will stop the northward movement and slowly push Nate to the west; and this is supported by most computer models.  Unless something drastic changes in the weather pattern we should be just fine from a tropical standpoint.  Now that Bermuda High will also mean we get south winds returning locally and that will bring an increase in humidity by next week; so enjoy the taste of Fall while it lasts. 

 

For full details on Nate as well as Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storm Maria checkout my tropical weather discussion video here: http://www.kplctv.com/category/5875/7stormteam-hurricane-center